However interesting and generally appealing scenario thinking, as discussed in my previous article, may be, it only provides a broad, qualitative picture of the context within which one is considering a significant investment decision. But indeed, a very important Continue reading Scenarios, numbers and the lognormal
When developing a strategy or making investment decisions, there will be many uncertainties that need assessment. These can range from cost and timing issues to broader questions at the macro level, for example political, regulatory or social developments. A way to get to grips with the latter category is by using ‘scenario analysis’, sometimes called ‘scenario thinking’ or ‘scenario planning’.
Continue reading Scenario planning and the so what question
For the development or continuity of a business lots of investment decisions are required. Making the right choices is key for the future success of the organization. Good templates for decision making processes exist that will allow arriving at such a choice in an orderly and structured manner. Although decisions can even be challenging in the context of limited uncertainty, for example because of delicate trade-offs between attributes of alternatives, the dimension that I would like to focus on in this article is uncertainty.
Continue reading Uncertainty and the art of decision making