Focused scenario analysis of the business environment

Objective

This course aims to develop skills in the application of the scenario approach in situations where contextual uncertainties in the business environment cannot be (credibly) quantified.

Content

A scenario can range from a simple script associated with some sensitivities to involved stories around key uncertainties in the geopolitical, regulatory and macroeconomic arena. The objective is to understand how these uncertainties in the end may affect financial and other decision metrics.

Target audience

Project economists, decision analysts, financial analysts, project staff, risk managers, strategy consultants.

Signing up

There are two options to take this course:

  1. Individually, no video or telephone engagement (questions and feedback by email only). Fee per participant is € 485 (excl VAT).
  2. In small groups with three video conferences on special topics and Q&A. Fee per participant is € 700 (excl VAT).

Another option is to add implementation coaching and other guidance (by video or face to face).

Duration

Some 10-15 hours (including all assignments).

The participant gets 90 days access to course and Q&A by the internal messaging system.

List of topics

There are 7 modules consisting of an introductory video, an interactive lesson, assignments and an end of lesson quiz.

  1. The scenario method – what is meant with a scenario?
  2. Contextual uncertainties – definition and examples
  3. Exploratory scenarios – scenarios with a broader objective
  4. Scenario development – several ways to develop scenarios
  5. Focused scenarios – scenarios with a focus on a business decision, the use of an influence diagram
  6. Quantification – how to quantitatively assess trends within the scenarios
  7. Decision making – incorporation of the analysis results in decisions
Feedback from participants

“The link to probability theory and decision making narrative was useful.”

“The many small assignments were good and as a experienced economist I find it broadening for especially the young economist without or with limited experience.”