Major Investment Decisions under Uncertainty in the Energy Sector

A 3-day face-to-face course

In this event we will discuss a wide range of topics related to major investment decisions in the world of energy. For example, we will look at questions such as:

• What is a good investment decision?
• What are ways to work around human bias?
• Why is the discount rate not a good measure of risk?
• How does risk management relate to decision making?
• What are issues with the internal rate of return as a decision metric?
• How do we develop meaningful price scenarios?
• How do we structure an effective decision process?
• How do we get to grips with geopolitical uncertainties?
• When is Monte Carlo simulation a good idea?
• How do we factor in climate change?

Clearly, this covers a broad range of topics within a three-day course. However, the purpose is to provide a holistic perspective on the theme of investment decisions in energy, and not to focus on one specific dimension or technique. Hence, the event is fast paced and intense, but with plenty of opportunity for discussion.

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

  • Understand how decision science techniques can facilitate an orderly and structured decision-making process.
  • Assess a cash flow analyis and understand decision metrics
  • Deal with uncertainties and understand their implications for investment decisions.
  • Use scenario planning to strategize and position investment opportunities in the broader macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
DAY 1

Scene setting
Corporate strategy, the use of scenario planning
Types of decisions
Portfolio analysis and project ranking
Decision metrics
Decision science
Framing a decision

DAY 2

Decision model, concepts for structured decision making, decision quality
Mitigating human biases
Economics
Economic analysis, cash flows, decision metrics, sensitivities
Price assumptions
Uncertainty analysis
Tornados, decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation
Risk management, risk quantification

DAY 3

Scenario planning
Development of scenarios
Geopolitical and macroeconomic context
Scenarios for energy
Integration
Decision governance
Stage gate process
Value assurance

Interactivity

Throughout the course, short exercises are offered, individually or in groups, to foster understanding and generate discussion.

Group work

Participants work in teams to develop a proposal for a hypothetical investment opportunity. The case is worked including framing, evaluation and considering options. The broader business environment is taken into account by means of scenario thinking.
An economic model (Excel) is used for calculations to inform the decision and assess the project risk.
The course is concluded by group presentations in support of the hypothetical investment proposal.

We are planning another delivery of this training course in Tanzania in 2024 (September – October, tbd). You can already express interest by clicking the button above.

Experiences from event delivered in October 2023, Dar es Salaam:

“…has been possible due to unquestionable skill and knowledge of the trainer who demonstrated high level of understanding and was stylish in delivering the material to the class.”

” Well organized – Participatory approach (discussion) -Interactive – Practical demonstration – The training gives a clear foundation for further studies.”

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