Risk quantification

Objective

This course aims to develop skills in the quantification of various risks and uncertainties that (potentially) impact an opportunity evaluation or project execution. It also provides a bridge between risk management activities and probabilistic valuation.

Content

In the risk management practice (either at enterprise or project level) it is common to maintain a risk register. Dealing with such risks is usually done in a qualitative manner: descriptions, probability and impact rankings, mitigation options etc.

It is proven to be very useful to aim for an additional and selective quantified approach: assign numeric probabilities and ranges to the more important risks following a bow tie analysis (decomposing risks in causes, events and implications).

In this way such risks can also be incorporated in quantitative analysis models.

Target audience

Risk managers, project staff, project economists, financial analysts, strategy consultants.

Duration

10-15 hours including all assignments.

90 days access to course and Q&A by the internal messaging system.

Signing up

There are two options to take this course:

  1. Individually, no video or telephone engagement (questions and feedback by email only). Fee per participant is € 485 (excl VAT).
  2. In small groups with three video conferences on special topics and Q&A. Fee per participant is € 700 (excl VAT).

Another option is to add implementation coaching and other guidance (by video or face to face).

List of topics

There are 9 modules consisting of an introductory video, an interactive lesson, assignments and an end of lesson quiz.

  1. Definition – what do we mean with risk, different types of risk
  2. Risk management – overview of risk management concepts and techniques
  3. Risk modelling – how to untangle a risk in preparation of quantification
  4. Biases – how to mitigate biases in quantifications
  5. Historic data analysis – the importance of lookbacks
  6. Range assessment – using a judgemental process to quantify a range variable
  7. Italian flag – an evidence based technique to assess a probability
  8. The analysis of competing hypotheses – assessing the weights of multiple possible outcomes of an event or development
  9. Facilitation and communication – some good practices for soliciting input
Feedback from participants

“It is a good mix of videos, narrative and excel – providing tools to work with.”

“I like the detailed description of techniques and processes taught in the course.”

“The examples and test questions are really good.”

For further information just message us through the contact form.