Fundamentals of Investment Risk and Uncertainty Analysis

This course aims to develop skills in the translation of uncertainties in input data (costs, volumes, prices etc) into the domain of financial decision metrics such as NPV. It essentially entails the principles of probabilistic valuation.

Target audience: project economists, decision analysts, financial analysts, project development staff

Duration: 10-15 hours

Benefit: 60 days access to course and coaching, bi-weekly teleconferences for special topics and Q&A

There are 10 modules consisting of introductory video, an interactive lesson with spreadsheet examples and an end of lesson quiz.

  1. Why bother – introduction, concept of expectation value, rationale of probabilistic analysis
  2. Statistical concepts – basics of probability distributions
  3. Range and probability assessment – by historic data analysis and judgemental methods
  4. Tornado diagram – a visual to show the key risks and uncertainties
  5. Decision trees – for structuring decision problems and communication
  6. Monte Carlo simulation demystified – using spreadsheets only
  7. Analytical methods – introduction to probabilistics on a mathematical basis including the novel DeltaLogN method
  8. Tornado based probabilistics – three ways to generate an NPV distribution from a tornado
  9. Decision tree based probabilistics – combining a decision tree with tornados
  10. Implementation and communication – key take aways for communicating uncertainty with decision makers

Available now at € 700 (excl VAT). Sign up.

Feedback from participants:

“..very to the point (no textbook bullshit), very approachable, even if you had no background experience, and I could quickly see the application for what I was learning in my daily work…”

“Enjoyed the content and level it was pitched at; the concepts were clear and the example spreadsheets highly useful.”

“I liked the fact that the course is very clear and concise, so that you are able to learn a wide range of material in a short amount of time.”

“I liked the informal tone in which the course is conducted, together with the close presence of teachers through teleconference.”

The Head of Economics of the company concerned states: “The Fundamentals of Investment Risk and Uncertainty Analysis course demystifies some of the key concepts used in Decision Analysis. The course has the right balance of content and tools that can be easily applied in various economic evaluations. As well as brushing up on probabilistic economics theory our team is now better prepared to apply these in our business.”