According to Pierre Wack, the founding father of scenario planning at Shell, the essence of scenario development is to identify the (uncertain) underlying fundamental driving forces that will shape the future business environment of an organization. In his thinking it would be wrong to immediately zoom in on different possible outcomes of trends such as global Continue reading The Big Five for Global Scenarios
Enterprise Risk Management aims to address risks that might affect the enterprise at large. The process steps involve risk identification, assessment and prioritization as well as the development of risk responses. Continue reading Blending ERM and Scenario Planning
The default number of scenarios that are typically presented by various organizations using scenario planning is four. This stems from the application of the so called deductive Continue reading BP, Shell and Statoil scenario practices
I am a big fan of look backs and after action reviews. Only in that way can we learn, reflect on how we looked at opportunities, what we were thinking at the time and whether the decisions taken made sense in the context of what we knew or could know. The objective is Continue reading The Shell scenarios of the 90s and what came of it
However interesting and generally appealing scenario thinking, as discussed in my previous article, may be, it only provides a broad, qualitative picture of the context within which one is considering a significant investment decision. But indeed, a very important Continue reading Scenarios, numbers and the lognormal
When developing a strategy or making investment decisions, there will be many uncertainties that need assessment. These can range from cost and timing issues to broader questions at the macro level, for example political, regulatory or social developments. A way to get to grips with the latter category is by using ‘scenario analysis’, sometimes called ‘scenario thinking’ or ‘scenario planning’.
Continue reading Scenario planning and the so what question