Category Archives: Scenario Planning

The Big Five for Global Scenarios

According to Pierre Wack, the founding father of scenario planning at Shell, the essence of scenario development is to identify the (uncertain) underlying fundamental driving forces that will shape the future business environment of an organization. In his thinking it would be wrong to immediately zoom in on different possible outcomes of trends such as global Continue reading The Big Five for Global Scenarios

Scenario planning and the so what question

When developing a strategy or making investment decisions, there will be many uncertainties that need assessment. These can range from cost and timing issues to broader questions at the macro level, for example political, regulatory or social developments. A way to get to grips with the latter category is by using ‘scenario analysis’, sometimes called ‘scenario thinking’ or ‘scenario planning’.

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