‘Just give me the number’

We tend to make the assumption that when considering an investment opportunity, executives seek to fully understand its financial attractiveness. Likewise, we expect that politicians would be interested in some quantitative […]

The Big Five for Global Scenarios

According to Pierre Wack, the founding father of scenario planning at Shell, the essence of scenario development is to identify the (uncertain) underlying fundamental driving forces that will shape the future […]

Blending ERM and Scenario Planning

Enterprise Risk Management aims to address risks that might affect the enterprise at large. The process steps involve risk identification, assessment and prioritization as well as the development of […]

DA and RM: Join Forces?

In the context of growing a business, but also for just running it, decision making and dealing with risk are core ingredients. In support of both dimensions more or less separate disciplines have […]

Understanding project risk using DeltaLogN

The best approach for taking into account risks when economically evaluating investment opportunities is the application of probabilistic valuation. This is a more disciplined methodology than just ‘running some sensitivities’. […]

The Shell scenarios of the 90s and what came of it

I am a big fan of look backs and after action reviews. Only in that way can we learn, reflect on how we looked at opportunities, what we were thinking at the time and whether the decisions taken made sense in the context of what we knew or could know. […]

Scenarios, numbers and the lognormal

However interesting and generally appealing scenario thinking, as discussed in my previous article, may be, it only provides a broad, qualitative picture of the context within which one is considering […]

Scenario planning and the so what question

When developing a strategy or making investment decisions, there will be many uncertainties that need assessment. These can range from cost and timing issues to broader questions at the macro level, for example political, regulatory […]

Uncertainty and the art of decision making

For the development or continuity of a business lots of investment decisions are required. Making the right choices is key for the future success of the organization. Good templates for decision […]

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