Virtual Learning Bites are short efforts taking about 2 hours to be spent. Each ‘bite’ covers a technique or concept that can be absorbed on its own. The participant learns a tool and is then able to apply it in business practice. A ‘bite’ thus has standalone value.
Each bite consists of:
- A lesson with a short video, some pieces of texts and examples.
- A discussion forum.
- One or two assignments (expect feedback).
- A pdf with the lesson text to keep.
- A quiz.
- Some notes that explain the context of the technique or concept.
- A 30 mins close out video conference to reflect and share experiences.
After registration you will get access to the material for three months. The close out video conferences are scheduled towards the end of calendar months.
“I found the introductory video very useful to get rapidly a good grasp of the approach.”
“Very focused and straight to the point.”
“Awesome. This is so helpful.”
Which Virtual Learning Bites are available?
This is a technique to assess a credible probability for a future event to take place or not. A risk for an investment project or organization, for example as captured in a risk register, may relate to some future event with uncertainty regarding its outcome (for example an agreement to be concluded, a permit to be obtained, etc). By systematically identifying and structuring information available, an evidence-based probability assessment may be executed, usually in the context of a group discussion.
This is a technique to estimate a range for a variable using expert elicitation, for example a cost. The central idea is that it is often not appropriate to characterize an uncertain variable by a single deterministic number. By quoting a range (or probability distribution) one can express the uncertainty in the estimate. Using a structured process a high, mid and low value of some variable can be estimated without or with partial use of data.
Scenario planning primer
Scenario planning is a powerful methodology to get to grips with the future uncertainties of the broader business environment. It has for example been successfully pioneered in Shell in the seventies of the previous century. This bite provides the background and an overview of the approach, with some examples. Attention is paid to how scenario planning can be linked to decision making. This virtual learning bite will provide you with an awareness level overview.
Why probabilistic investment analysis
Investment decisions in business are usually based on a cash flow analysis yielding decision metrics e.g. NPV. For such calculations, many assumptions need to be made and projected into the future. These assumptions with regard to costs and revenues are often biased. Investment opportunities also have many risks and uncertainties. Deterministic (‘single number’) based analyses can therefore be very misleading. A probabilistic approach using ranges rather than single numbers encourages the analysts to think wider and provides decision makers with a better understanding of the opportunity at hand. In this learning bite you will learn in two hours the main principles of probabilistic analysis. Which easy to apply approaches for this purpose are available?
Future Virtual Learning Bites
We will be working on many additional virtual learning bites in the domain of decision and risk analysis, risk management and scenario planning. For example (and more):
- From tornado to probability distribution
- Decision Quality
- Decision trees
- DeltaLogN method
- Risk appetite
- The lognormal distribution