Probabilistic Analysis

‘Just give me the number’

We tend to make the assumption that when considering an investment opportunity, executives seek to fully understand its financial attractiveness. Likewise, we expect that politicians would be interested in some quantitative […]

Understanding project risk using DeltaLogN

The best approach for taking into account risks when economically evaluating investment opportunities is the application of probabilistic valuation. This is a more disciplined methodology than just ‘running some sensitivities’. […]

Scenarios, numbers and the lognormal

However interesting and generally appealing scenario thinking, as discussed in my previous article, may be, it only provides a broad, qualitative picture of the context within which one is considering […]

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