‘Just give me the number’
We tend to make the assumption that when considering an investment opportunity, executives seek to fully understand its financial attractiveness. Likewise, we expect that politicians would be interested in some quantitative […]
Understanding project risk using DeltaLogN
The best approach for taking into account risks when economically evaluating investment opportunities is the application of probabilistic valuation. This is a more disciplined methodology than just ‘running some sensitivities’. […]
An innovation for decision tree probabilities
The attraction of a decision tree is that it brings together conceptual thinking about a decision problem and the quantitative evaluation of it. For the latter purpose […]
Scenarios, numbers and the lognormal
However interesting and generally appealing scenario thinking, as discussed in my previous article, may be, it only provides a broad, qualitative picture of the context within which one is considering […]