Knowledge Base

The free knowledge base contains a library with articles about uncertainty evaluation. Most of them are concerned with providing the mathematical background of various methodologies that are discussed in the NavIncerta courses and go beyond the typical content of books on decision analysis.

For application of these methodologies interested parties are referred to the NavIncerta online courses or masterclasses.

The knowledge base also contains a forum for discussion and questions. We would much appreciate your feedback.

This link provides access to the free knowledge base:


Click on ‘Library and Forum’.

If you are not yet registered as a course participant, please create a free account by selecting ‘Create new account’.

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  • Once returned to the website, choose ‘Enrol me’; you then have access.

You can return to the knowledge base any time, but please remember your account details.

Note that those who have taken a NavIncerta course in the past are still registered and have automatic access.

This is an initial list of intended articles (expect more) which we will expand over time.

Title Content Availability
The lognormal distribution The mathematics of the lognormal distribution with some practical formulas In the library
Risk and the discount rate A discussion of the use of the discount rate for accounting for risk in valuations. What are the alternatives? In the library
Probabilistic valuation A brief discussion of what we mean by probabilistic valuation and its benefits. In the library
Discetization and Swanson’s rule Practical formulas for the discretization of continuous distribution and the derivation of Swanson’s rule In the library
Truncating a lognormal distribution The mathematics of truncating a lognormal distribution, the weighting of segments and the empirical derivation of formulas for the 1% truncated lognormal In progress
The product of distributions The mean and standard deviation of the product of distributions In progress
The PERT distribution A discussion of the PERT distribution (a special case of the Beta distribution) which is often used in schedule risk analysis In progress
The DeltaLogN method The mathematical background of the DeltaLogN method, as an analytical alternative to Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees In progress