The Big Five for Global Scenarios
According to Pierre Wack, the founding father of scenario planning at Shell, the essence of scenario development is to identify the (uncertain) underlying fundamental driving forces […]
Blending ERM and Scenario Planning
Enterprise Risk Management aims to address risks that might affect the enterprise at large. The process steps involve risk identification, assessment and prioritization as well […]
BP, Shell and Statoil scenario practices
The default number of scenarios that are typically presented by various organizations using scenario planning is four. This stems from the application of the so called deductive […]
The Shell scenarios of the 90s and what came of it
I am a big fan of look backs and after action reviews. Only in that way can we learn, reflect on how we looked at opportunities, what we were thinking at the time and whether the decisions taken made sense in the context of what we knew or could […]
Scenarios, numbers and the lognormal
However interesting and generally appealing scenario thinking, as discussed in my previous article, may be, it only provides a broad, qualitative picture of the context within […]
Scenario planning and the so what question
When developing a strategy or making investment decisions, there will be many uncertainties that need assessment. These can range from cost and timing issues to broader questions at the macro level, […]