Premium VLL Risk Management and Quantification

With the virtual learning lab Risk Management and Quantification you will learn:

  • the purpose and scope of risk management in relation to major investment decisions,
  • how to deal with non-technical risks,
  • ..and in particular how to quantify risks.

This Virtual Learning Lab consists of pre-programmed live virtual expert lectures, online self-study materials (split up in blocks) and optional check ins.

Target audience: risk managers, decision analysts, project managers, project economists, financial analysts, technical project staff.

Price€ 950  ( ~ US$ 1100). This is the nominal price, early bird and other discounts will be available.

Discounts are available for larger groups – please check with us.

Time period: 1 April – 28 June 2019

Total time to be spent by participant over this period ~ 20 hours (7 hours per month); this includes the time for online work as well as the virtual engagements.

The five virtual expert lectures and three optional check-in sessions are reguarly spaced across this period. Time in the day is 4 PM GMT.

Virtual Expert Lectures

Henk Krijnen



Lecture 1:  Integrating risk management and decision analysis

  • Commonalities and differences between the fields of risk management and decision analysis
  • How to use the insights from risk management to improve decision making

Henk Krijnen founded NavIncerta after completing a career of 35 years with Shell which took him to Indonesia, Thailand, the United States and the Netherlands. During his last five years in Shell’s corporate strategy department he played a pivotal role in establishing new approaches for risk and scenario analysis within the company.

Diana Del Bel Belluz



Lecture 2:  Enterprise risk management and the linkage to project risk management

  • Define what ERM (Enterprise risk management) is and how it relates to project and operational risk management
  • Explain the tools used in ERM

Lecture 3:  The role of neuroscience in facilitation

  • Differentiate System 1 (automatic) thinking and System 2 (deliberate) thinking and compare when to engage each thinking style for risk quantification
  • Explain common cognitive biases and describe effective strategies to minimize them in risk quantification

Diana Del Bel Belluz is President and Founder of Risk Wise Inc. (Toronto). She is an expert in Enterprise Risk Management and guides executive teams and boards to gain clarity and confidence about their ERM choices and implementations.


Christiaan Luca



Lecture 4:  Non-technical risk and the merits of quantification

  • Managing Non-Technical Risks: definitions, business impact and challenges
  • Quantifying Non-Technical Risks: driving focus, internal collaboration and action

Lecture 5:  Organizational dimensions of non-technical risk management

  • Mobilising the internal organisation: driving early and pro-active risk responses
  • Risk quantification along the capital project delivery journey: when, why and how much

Christiaan Luca completed a 32-year career with Shell in which he had a variety of petroleum engineering and management roles. Until end 2016, Christiaan was the head of Shell’s global practice in non-technical risk management. He now is an independent trainer, assessor and coach in this expertise area. Christiaan will be Distinguished Lecturer 2018-2019 on non-technical risk management for the Society of Petroleum Engineers.


Online material



Part 1: Discovering Risk Management for Major Investments
  • Definitions: What do we mean by risk?
  • Risk management: Overview of various tools used in project risk management
  • Risk modelling: How to unpack a risk in its key components in preparation for quantification
Part 2: Understanding biases
  • Biases: What are typical biases when assessing quantities?
  • Historic data analysis: How can historic data come to the rescue (to some degree)?
  • Range assessment: How can we estimate a range of a quantity using expert interviewing?
Part 3: Quantification tools
  • Italian flag: How can we assess a probability?
  • ACH method: How can we arrive at relative weights for multiple outcomes?
  • Facilitation and Communication: Good practices when facilitating and communicating