With the virtual workshop Scenario Planning for Decision Making you will:

  • Understand the background and theory of scenario planning;
  • Learn how to develop scenarios and use them in the decision process;
  • Take home an initial sketch of a set of scenarios that may kick-start a genuine scenario planning exercise in your organization.

This Virtual Workshop consists of pre-programmed live virtual sessions, online self-study materials (split up in blocks) and (virtual) group work .

Target audience: strategy staff, planners, decision analysts, project managers, project economists, financial analysts, technical project staff.

Total time to be spent by participant spread out over a period of 2.5 months:? 20 – 25 hours.

For pricing, discounts and schedule? please check with us.



Henk Krijnen



This virtual workshop is moderated by Henk Krijnen. He is managing partner of NavIncerta and has worked in Shell’s scenario department from 2010 till 2015.

Virtual expert lectures

Virtual expert lectures will be included in the workshop depending on the topic and scope of the workshop.


Group work



  • Framing: agree on focal question, geographic area, themes, time horizon
  • Explore the key driving forces and uncertainties
  • Articulate possible outcomes
  • Compose outlines of a set of scenarios
  • Apply the insights when zooming in on a hypothetical investment decision


Online material



Part 1: Exploration

  • The scenario method: What do we mean with ‘scenarios’?
  • Contextual uncertainties: What are driving forces and contextual uncertainties?
  • Exploratory scenarios: scenarios for developing a better understanding of the business environment.

Part 2: Development

  • Scenario development: Different methodologies for scenario development.

Part 3: Focus

  • Focused scenarios: zooming in on a specific investment opportunity.
  • Quantification: where possible and relevant, think in numbers.

Part 4: Decisions

  • Decision making: how scenarios are used in decision making processes.

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