Often there will be uncertainties when investment or strategic decisions are to be made. These can range from minor cost, schedule and design risks to major and complex geopolitical and macroeconomic issues with long term impact. How can such uncertainties and risks be assessed in such a way that sufficient clarity is created to facilitate sensible decisions?

For project specific uncertainties quantitative methods can be applied. These include sensitivity analysis, decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation. NavIncerta also offers simple to apply analytic methods. In addition it is important to link these to risk management activities that may be employed.

For the wider external uncertainties scenario analysis is very useful. Scenarios are narratives of alternative futures of the contextual environment. These can be used to get to grips with broader issues such as politics, macroeconomic trends, regulation and social developments.

The strength of NavIncerta is that it combines expertise in quantitative methodologies and in scenario analysis. The combination of the two can provide maximum clarity to decision makers when it comes to unraveling the wide range of uncertainties they face when making significant investment decisions.

These topics are generally associated with the field of Decision Analysis. Although clearly decision processes, intuition and psychology are important, NavIncerta specifically focuses on the analysis methodologies that underpin such decisions, with emphasis on the assessment of risks and uncertainties. Relevant concepts and methodologies for such analyses are embedded in a set of attractive tutored online courses (not to be confused with MOOCs).

The reality is that most organizations do not handle uncertainty well and that researchers have not provided adequate answers about how to plan under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity.



“..very to the point (no textbook bullshit), very approachable, even if you had no background experience, and I could quickly see the application for what I was learning in my daily work…”

“Enjoyed the content and level it was pitched at; the concepts were clear and the example spreadsheets highly useful.”

“I liked the fact that the course is very clear and concise, so that you are able to learn a wide range of material in a short amount of time.”

“I liked the informal tone in which the course is conducted, together with the close presence of teachers through teleconference.”

“I think the NavIncerta course material is absolutely excellent.”


NavIncerta has entered into partnerships with NRGEDGE in Singapore and DECISION NODES in Norway.

Early clients include Tennet, Maersk Oil and Lukoil.  If you are also active in the oil and gas industry, please check out this brochure. Please note however that the online courses are relevant for any sector.


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