Navigating uncertainty

A dhow tries to navigate its way in the dark (uncertainty) and benefits from some sunlight (analysis) that may not provide full clarity but is sufficient for the journey.

Investment decisions

Often there will be uncertainties when investment or strategic decisions are to be made. These can range from minor cost, schedule and design risks to major and complex geopolitical and macroeconomic issues with long term impact. How can such uncertainties and risks be assessed in such a way that sufficient clarity is created to facilitate sensible decisions and strategy development?

Quantitative uncertainty analysis

For project specific uncertainties quantitative methods for probabilistic valuation can be applied. These include sensitivity analysis, decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation. NavIncerta also offers sophisticated but simple to apply analytic methods. In addition it is important to make the link with risk management.

Qualitative uncertainty analysis

For the wider external uncertainties scenario planning is very useful. Scenarios are narratives of alternative futures of the contextual environment. These can be used to get to grips with broader issues such as politics, macroeconomic trends, regulation and social developments.

Combining numbers and judgement

The strength of the NavIncerta concept is that it combines expertise in quantitative methodologies and scenario thinking. The combination of the two can provide maximum clarity to decision makers when it comes to unraveling the wide range of uncertainties they face when making significant investment decisions.

Integration across disciplines

In many organizations, financial opportunity valuation, risk management and analysis of the business environment are separate departments and disciplines, each with their own methodologies. The NavIncerta concepts promote a more integrated approach towards assessing the uncertainty associated with investment decisions and strategy development.

The reality is that most organizations do not handle uncertainty well and that researchers have not provided adequate answers about how to plan under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity.


 

PARTNERS and CLIENTS

NavIncerta has entered into a partnership with AsiaEdge in Singapore.

Early clients include Cardano, Tennet, Maersk Oil, Lukoil, Nuon/Vattenfall and NPM Capital.


AGENDA

11-12 December 2017: Masterclass ‘The use of scenario planning for decision making’ in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia


 

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