Often there will be uncertainties when investment or strategic decisions are to be made. These can range from minor cost, schedule and design risks to major and complex geopolitical and macroeconomic issues with long term impact. How can such uncertainties and risks be assessed in such a way that sufficient clarity is created to facilitate sensible decisions?

These topics are generally considered to be part of the broader field of Decision Analysis. Although clearly decision processes, intuition and psychology are important, NavIncerta specifically focuses on the analysis methodologies that underpin such decisions, with emphasis on the assessment of risks and uncertainties. Relevant concepts and methodologies for such analyses are embedded in a set of attractive tutored online courses (not to be confused with MOOCs).

The reality is that most organizations do not handle uncertainty well and that researchers have not provided adequate answers about how to plan under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity.


The Fundamentals course has been completed by a first group of participants of a medium sized oil and gas company. They rated the quality of the course at 8.8 on a scale of 1 to 10. This has led to a further roll out of NavIncerta courses within the company. The Head of Economics of the company concerned states: “The Fundamentals of Investment Risk and Uncertainty Analysis course demystifies some of the key concepts used in Decision Analysis. The course has the right balance of content and tools that can be easily applied in various economic evaluations. As well as brushing up on probabilistic economics theory our team is now better prepared to apply these in our business.”

NavIncerta has entered into a partnership with PETROEDGE in Singapore for deployment of the curriculum in the oil, gas and power sector in Asia, Australia and the Middle East.

A reviewer: “I think the NavIncerta course material is absolutely excellent.”


A webinar in collaboration with Petroedge: Using the Scenario Technique to “Future Proof” your Business Strategies, 26 October, 9 AM CET.